Few months back, we had written a review of Kushal Tradelink and analyzed the performance since I have myself invested in Kushal Tradelink based on suggestions given by a friend who is very active in the stock market. There were lot comments to the Kushal Tradelink stock review article where many readers also invested in it whereas some had confusion about whether to invest or not.

Earlier this month I had a chance encounter with a heavy-duty investor at the Mumbai Airport and over-heard him giving some insights about Kushal Tradelink over the phone. As you might have guessed, I decided to convert this chance encounter into a learning opportunity. I started discussing with him about Kushal Tradelink, it’s performance, etc. since it is always important to learn from seasoned investors! I am in touch with that investor [not disclosed due to confidentiality reasons] during the time when the lower circuit for Kushal Tradelink had not yet opened and decided to have a Q&A session with him once we shared very good rapport and when lower circuit had opened up Kushal Tradelink.

Below are the edited excerpts from the interview [Note : Due to confidentiality reasons, we are unable to reveal the name of the retail investor and the interview it for the benefit of retail investors who are interested to invest in stock market].

Are you an investor in Kushal Tradelink and can you comment on it’s performance ?

Yes, I am holding more than 100k shares of that company. What should I say about it’s stock performance! Entire Indian stock market has witnessed its strength and performance. I would say it is one of its kind of stock. Kushal Tradelink is an investment that has given 10x returns in 13 months and this is what makes it an excellent stock.

Any particular reason why you did not sell the shares of Kushal Tradelink when it was at its peak at Rs. 600 ?

Well, there are many reasons behind that, first I have invested in Kushal Tradelink from a long term perspective and believe that it will be around Rs. 1200 valuation after couple of years from now, another reason is since there are very few investment options available if I would have sold the shares. One option could be buying a property or investing in some other company. If I invest in another company’s shares there is no guarantee that it would give huge returns like Kushal Tradelink does and same debate holds good for buying a property. I strongly believe that Kushal Tradelink is a long term investment and investors should hold on to it.

There are some speculations in the media that Asia’s best performing stocks have started to nose-dive and investors are not able to sell the stock, your comments on the same and future market trends ?

Look, there is no doubt about that it was Asia’s best performing stock, all the investors that invested in it even for a couple of days were able to sell it with profit. Fall in price depends on supply and demand of the stock and just because authorities don’t want investors to make money they shifted it in Trade-to-Trade (T2T) segment and hence the demand decreased. I am considering Kushal as gold jewellery purchased for my wife neither I would go for selling it if price rises nor I would panic if the price goes down.

It is observed that any stock that has started to fall with lower circuit has never opened it’s lower circuit before it reaches to penny stock, do you think it will be a penny stock or you are still optimistic ?

It is not always not necessary that history repeats, We have observed its strength on the occasion of Brexit and when Demonetization was announced. On 2nd Jan 2017, the media criticized the stock heavily and many investors sold the shares. Hence in normal circumstances more positive buyers are there than the negative ones.

If we talk about lower circuits than I would like to emphasise on government body’s intervention that has created this chaos. SEBI and BSE has jointly taken the decision to shift it to the T2T segment for the welfare of the retail investors. This step has turned out to be a nightmare for the retail investors that have already invested in the company. Just because of T2T, big seasoned investors lost their interest and that’s why retail investors panicked and lower circuit started.

If you look at Atlas cycles same thing happened with that company as well, so it is nothing like it was the fault of Kushal Tradelink or there is anything wrong with their financials, or company suddenly started making losses, this phenomenon is due to varying supply and demand of the stock.

I have met many people and they were claiming that Kushal Tradelink’s stock price rose substantially because of manipulation but in reality it rose higher than their expectations and expert’s knowledge and therefore it was easy for them to say so. However, if you look from my point of view it is clearly visible that price rise was just due to demand and supply. According to my study based on shareholding pattern of December, I concluded that the price rose during the time frame October~December 2016 and it can be attributed to the formula of Supply v/s Demand.

How you can say that numbers were not manipulated and it was pure role of supply and demand ?

If you ask any person that is not involved in the stock market, he would claim that whole stock market is like satta bazar or  it is manipulative. In last September there were more than 19000 shareholders and in December there were 31000 shareholders. More than 11200 retail investors have shown their faith in the December quarter. A single quarter has 60 trading sessions which means that every day on an average every two minutes, one ‘new’ shareholder has purchased shares of Kushal Tradelink. We have not included intra-day and short-term traders for this calculation and total 30938 shareholders have shown their faith and made money in the December quarter alone. This huge number itself spells for the trust that retail investors have in Kushal Tradelink.

If we talk about FIIs than 4 new FIIs and 16 new foreign portfolio investors are currently holding stocks of Kushal Tradelink. In addition to that more than 300 new clearing members are holding it and 130 corporates have also purchased it. Because of the heavy demand, stock price of Kushal Tradelink sky rocketed in December and critics think it is manipulative.

Market capitalization is decided based on number of shares multiplied by price and the price rose because of demand and supply, and not because of PE, EPS and book value or peers comparison. People who criticize Kushal Tradelink must understand the demand and supply mechanism first since that is driving the growth for Kushal Tradelink. I am a shareholder in Kushal Tradelink and it has given me millions of moments to rejoice and same holds good for all the other investors of Kushal Tradelink. On the contrary I have not heard any expert opinions on Kingfisher, Unitech, and Satyam scams but their expert opinion are voiced out for the company that has consistently created fortune for thousands of people.

What is your next step, are you placing sell orders like others or you will buy shares of Kushal Tradelink in the lower circuit ?

According to me selling shares of Kushal Tradelink in the near future is a very bad option, let me tell you why – Company is going to do amalgamation of four companies, in addition to that, I have also heard from reliable sources that they are in process of buying few stressed business assets and they are diversifying and entering into the I.T, entertainment and Textile industries as well. Above all, Kushal Tradelink is debt free company and it’s financials are growing YoY and that will again reflect on it’s stock price. Therefore performance of Kushal Tradelink would remain intact and it would grow much faster because substantial number of people who have doubts on it’s performance are becoming positive buyers now and that will help in increasing it’s new and strong base of shareholders. My suggestion as a seasoned investor is to hold on to shares of Kushal Tradelink and buy it in case you haven’t.

Financial experts say that it will be penny stock because all shareholders will sell it when they will get opportunity, there is no chance of opening lower circuit. On what base you are giving the call to buy stocks of Kushal Tradelink ?

Popularity always makes a difference and I can predict that huge buying is about to start in the next coming days. Kushal is very popular all over India because of its price, performance and thousands of retail investor’s profitability. If you have not seen America that doesn’t mean America does not exist, same thing happened with the experts and I don’t think expert’s opinion matter. Apart from that let me give you an example how lower circuit will open, why people will not sell their holdings and my prediction of the future.

Assume that one share holder of Kushal Tradelink tells 5 people about the company or it’s amazing run at the stock market. Out of those 5 people may buy it because they trust the person who is giving that suggestion. Out of those five people, two of them invest in Kushal Tradelink as per the financial plan chartered by them.

Now let’s look at the bigger picture. At the end of September quarter, Kushal Tradelink was having more than 19000 shareholders. Out of that let’s say 9000 people recommended it to 5 people out 45000 people, out of that let’s say 18000 people actually purchased. However remaining 27000 are tentative to invest and when they get its reference from other reliable source they may jump in to buy stock at any time. Because of ~18000 new investors (short and long term) in Kushal Tradelink in December quarter, stock price of Kushal Tradelink sky rocketed.

In a nutshell, all people in the market that have either earned short term profit from Kushal Tradelink or have heard about it’s earlier rally or are referred by someone will come to buy it at 50% corrected price from it’s high price and people that plan to sell will anyways do it. This is how popularity of Kushal Tradelink is going to increase day by day and more number of retail investors will invest in the company’s stock.

Now let’s talk about predicted future:

According to our market research, we have found out that all those people that have booked full or partial profit are interested to buy Kushal Tradelink, apart from those people that have missed earlier rally or those who criticized Kushal Tradelink earlier are also interested in buying its shares. It is visible that many investors are buying it daily. Based on a research, the conclusion is that more than 1 crore shares are expected to be bought by old and new individual shareholders and the number does not include FIIs. We are also expecting more than 2 crore shares would be bought by HNIs and on the other side only 75 lakh shares are expected to be sold. Therefore we believe that demand remains higher than supply hence high rise in price is expected until demand and supply becomes equal.

Another thing is that demand in Kushal Tradelink was very high and it will remain higher in future because it has tripled investors’ money in a short span of time and based on it’s capacity, similar performance is expected in the future.

I am not talking anything about fundamentals as they are available for you on the BSE website and you do your own research. However company is on it’s way to buy more businesses and starting new ventures that you will get notification from BSE website, I am not suggesting popular mobile app for stock market because it does not have all the updated figures available. Hence I prefer BSE website for authentic data, besides this I am going to buy at lower price because of my research, simple logic and common sense. I am sure that price will get necessary support from the big boys forever just like earlier events 🙂

There are lot of negative talks about Kushal Tradelink, so what is the reason you are so optimistic about the company & its performance ?

You know our Indian culture, we rarely appreciate others for their success because we think we are the smarter than others and that’s the problem. People that don’t hold stock are in race to prove their self as experts by recalling their previous advice. I would like to thank all those people that have given space to Kushal Tradelink in their mind for free.

However let me tell you one thing that I am not going to make money by listening to their expert opinion, I am going to make money by taking my own call because it’s my own money so I cannot let others take decision for my money. If I will hold the stock, it is better to ignore those freebies since they are nothing but enemy of your profit. Can you tell me which is next Wipro, Infosys or TCS after 15 to 20 years?, no right. I am looking at Kushal Tradelink after a decade like one of these companies. So my suggestion is to buy it around Rs. 150 in quantity and when it price rises, get your invested amount back by selling few stocks and remain invested with your profitable shares, I am sure you will thank me after few years. In fact, you are invest in a lesser risky option like Fixed Deposits (FD) and let the profit from Kushal Tradelink be invested in buying it’s shares!

To sum off this lengthy discussion,

According to me Kushal Tradelink is people’s company and since more & more hands are joining forces together, its strength is growing. You can be a part of people’s company and create fortune or become a lone spectator, choice is in your hands…

Create history or Witness History

Disclaimer : Information provided in the article is based on my research, retail investor’s knowledge. I have personally invested in Kushal Tradelink stock. Investment in stocks involves huge risk, so consult your financial adviser or do your own analysis before making any investment.